In case you haven't heard, the Government Accounting Office recently crunched the numbers and reported back that the drug discovery industry keeps spending more on research while it comes up with fewer NDAs. The trend was tracked for 11 years through 2004. I'd be willing to bet, though, that a surge in early-stage trials will eventually lead to the promised land of more marketing applications. Maybe I'm just an optimist, but the research underway in the drug discovery area is solid and it takes a number of years before the proof shows up in the NDA process. Biotech is short on magic wands and magic lamps. It's a long, slow, expensive process.
Even a nodding acquaintance with the research world, though, is enough to excite the worst kind of skeptic. The highly touted world of personalized medicine is gradually becoming a reality with solid advances in genomics, biomarkers and diagnostics. We won't get to the promised land by the end of 2007, but we'll see more steady advances as successful companies are rewarded with increased share prices.